Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Osama Bin Laden's Death and its effect

On the early hours of May 2, U.S. claimed to have killed Osama Bin Laden (OBL) through "Special operations" which  are defined (pdf) as


 "Military operations that are "conducted in hostile, denied, or politically sensitive environments to achieve military, diplomatic, informational, and/or economic objectives employing military capabilities for which there is no broad conventional force requirement. These operations often require covert, clandestine, or low visibility capabilities.... Special operations differ from conventional operations in degree of physical and political risk, operational techniques, mode of employment, independence from friendly support, and dependence on detailed operational intelligence and indigenous assets".


 From the above definition and Obama’s carefully scripted speech, it would appear that the U.S. conducted the operation unilaterally with no Pakistani assistance — or even knowledge. And to great extent this is true. 





The Aftermath


The Aftermath of OBL is developing negatively for Pakistan and especially for Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI). The Western stakeholders and policy maker are trying to dismantle the organization. As it is known that ISI is the Pakistan's first line of defence and probably the most strong and reliable.


In the previous assessments Intelligence X reported that how Pakistan Army and ISI are important for its existence between the corrupt and heavily infiltrated political parties and political system. In this context it make sense in portraying OBL hideout near Pakistan Military Academy Kakul. It literally means that Pak Army and ISI are involved in giving cover to OBL . Five days before this operation a western news website published an article with the reference from the wikileaks that US authorities describe the main Pakistani intelligence service ISI as a terrorist organisation in secret files.


  The Result


The recent events could bring two possibilities 1) US could wage a war on Pakistan Army and ISI to dismantle them and takeover the nuclear assets, modify the geography of the country to block China and to contain India. 2) The US can start pulling back from Afghanistan in a winning situation with the claim of victory.

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